Inside Track: On the ground at TPM25

A report from TPM25 from Patrick Lo, President and CEO, Canaan Group.

It has been just over a week since TPM25 wrapped up, and as always, reflecting on the speakers, conversations with customers, discussions with shipping lines, and emerging technologies leaves me with plenty to consider. While there’s no crystal ball to predict 2025 with certainty, here are a few key takeaways that stood out:

– As we do every year, industry experts and economists are analyzing the delicate balance of supply and demand, factoring in new ship deliveries and the scrapping of older vessels. The consensus points to a 1-2% increase in global TEU capacity. If tensions in the Red Sea ease, rerouting vessels back through the Suez instead of the Cape of Good Hope will further increase available capacity. However, supply is only part of the equation—the real uncertainty lies in demand, especially with tariff disputes between the U.S. and its trading partners adding another layer of complexity.

– After a year of discussions, Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk Gemini service officially launched in February. This week, I had the opportunity to attend Hapag-Lloyd’s ceremony for the Frankfurt Express at DP World Vancouver. Reliability as a value proposition—rather than just price—has the potential to be a game-changer, particularly for customers who depend on consistent transit times.

– Once again, TPM was flooded with visibility platform providers. However, there’s a sense that interest may be waning as companies recognize that visibility alone doesn’t change outcomes. While a few AI-driven solutions were showcased, we’re only at the beginning of seeing how AI will streamline operations, reduce headcount, and drive greater efficiency.

– The “China Plus One” strategy remains a dominant theme in 2025. Companies continue to explore alternative sourcing and manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam, Thailand, and India. While there’s ongoing interest in reshoring production to the U.S., the cost gap remains a significant barrier compared to other markets.

– With ongoing uncertainty, businesses continue to navigate the trade-off between Just-in-Time (JIT) and Just-in-Case (JIC) supply chain models. Those reliant on weekly shipments are diversifying their risk through alternative routings and suppliers—much like investors managing a stock portfolio to balance returns. This remains a key focus for North American importers in 2025.

As we move forward, these themes will continue to shape global trade. The question isn’t just about what’s changing—but how businesses will adapt to stay ahead. Once again, always appreciate Eric Johnson and Mark Szakonyi for setting up incredible speakers and organization of the event.