LTL and Full Truck Load capacity and rates for Q1 2024

In the first quarter of 2024, predictions indicate stability in Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) rates with subtle fluctuations, while truckload rates are expected to persist near the lows established in Q2 of the previous year. AFS and TD Cowen jointly released these insights as part of the TD Cowen/AFS Index, offering a forward-looking snapshot of pricing trends in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and the truckloads market in North America.

For LTL rates, the index forecasts a 58.9% increase above the January 2018 baseline in Q1 2024, representing a marginal 0.7% decrease from Q4 2023 but a 0.8% YoY increase. This level is maintained since Q2 2022, influenced by the Yellow collapse in Q3 of 2023. The LTL market appears in a state of stasis due to soft demand, though the recent auction of former Yellow terminals to carriers like XPO and Estes is expected to enhance network efficiency and overall capacity in the long run.  The overall net effect is that there will not be much changes on the LTL markets both in capacity and pricing for Q1 2024.

In the truckload sector, the rate per mile index is projected to be 4.6% above the January 2018 baseline in Q1 2024, showing a 0.2% decline QoQ and a 2.9% YoY decrease. Despite consistency since establishing a floor in Q2 2023, the average linehaul cost per shipment has declined in tandem with miles per shipment. Short-haul shipments, covering less than 500 miles, increased from 79.8% in Q2 2023 to 84.9% in Q4 2023. While truckload rates may not rebound in Q1 2024, macroeconomic conditions, including easing inflation and potential interest rate cuts, suggest the possibility of upward momentum later in the year. 

For now, there does not seem to be much shift in these 2 trucking areas both the LTL and the truckload rates.  For more information on specific trucking lanes, please contact your local Canaan staff and customer service. 

This article was summarized from the reports of InsideLogistics.ca.