Consumer good demand in the North America will decline in 2022 as federal stimulus payments have been mostly spent and people shift their spending to vacations and restaurants following pandemic restrictions ending. But ocean freight rates might not decline as quickly as some have hoped because of global environmental regulations that will start in 2023.
A new emissions rating systems will start in 2023 as part of efforts from the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) to bring down carbon dioxide emissions. All vessels will require an annual Carbon Intensity Indicator ranking which measures carbon emissions during operations. Ocean carriers will need to invest in retrofits to meet emission requirements. We expect those added costs will get passed on to customers, offsetting some of the expected declines in post-pandemic ocean rates.
1. TPM22: IMO mandate will prevent sharp ocean rate decline, Journal of Commerce, Feb 28, 2022. Accessed Mar 21, 2022.