COVID-19 appears to be moving from a pandemic to endemic phase, and we are all wondering how soon supply chain issues will resolve. According to Denmark-based research analytics firm Sea-Intelligence, it will take 8-9 months before a return to normal reliability of container shipping.1
The research is based on the recovery period following the US West Coast labour dispute of early 2015. Average vessel delays at that time were 11.88 days, and it took 6-7 months to resolve, an average reduction in excess delay of 1.25-1.45 days/month. The excess delay in Dec 2021 was 15.07 days suggesting that resolution will take 8-9 months.
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1. Sea-Intelligence – Press Release (Feb 9th, 2022) – Reliability recovery will take at least 8-9 months, Sea-Intelligence, Feb 9, 2022. Accessed Feb 21, 2022.