Inside Track: Tariff Turbulence — What Canadian Importers and Exporters Need to Know Right Now

A Fast-Moving Situation

The rules of international trade are changing faster than most businesses can keep up with. For Canadian importers and exporters, 2026 has already brought a series of major shifts — and more are likely on the way. On February 24, 2026, the U.S. imposed a new 10% tariff on goods from most countries, using a law that had never been used before. U.S. officials have signalled this rate could rise to 15% before the measure expires on July 24. That gives businesses a short window to understand how they are affected and take action.

There are more changes ahead. In March, the U.S. launched trade investigations into 60 countries over concerns about forced labour, and into 16 others — including China, the EU, and Vietnam — over excess manufacturing. These investigations could lead to additional tariffs within the next six to eighteen months. For businesses that ship goods along the Canada–Asia trade lane, this is a second wave of potential costs that is worth preparing for now, before any new tariffs take effect.

What’s Happening Inside Canada

Inside Canada, the picture is also more complicated than it was a year ago. While most of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods were lifted in September 2025, tariffs of 25% to 50% remain on U.S. steel, aluminum, and vehicles that do not qualify under CUSMA. At the same time, Canada’s border agency (CBSA) has stepped up its enforcement for 2026, with a specific focus on whether importers have correctly classified their goods and can prove where those goods came from. Businesses that cannot show the right paperwork risk being reassessed and having to pay back duties — plus losing access to lower tariff rates they may currently rely on.

One important near-term opportunity: businesses that paid U.S. tariffs under a policy that was later struck down by the Supreme Court may be eligible for a refund. The U.S. customs authority is expected to have an automated refund system ready around April 20, 2026. Companies with accurate, well-organized import records are in the best position to recover those costs — which is another reason why good documentation pays off in practical terms.

Looking ahead, the formal review of CUSMA begins July 1, 2026. The outcome of that review could affect rules around where products are considered to originate, which tariff rates apply, and how goods move across North American borders. The situation is uncertain, but businesses that have flexible supplier contracts, a clear understanding of who is responsible for import costs, and a reliable customs partner will be better placed to adapt quickly — whatever the result.

Key Takeaways

• A new 10% U.S. tariff is in effect and could rise to 15% before it expires July 24, 2026
• New U.S. trade investigations into forced labour and excess manufacturing could bring additional tariffs within 6–18 months — businesses on the Canada–Asia trade lane should pay close attention
• Canadian tariffs of 25–50% remain on U.S. steel, aluminum, and non-CUSMA vehicles
• The CBSA is actively auditing importers in 2026 — correct HS classification and country-of-origin documents are essential
• Businesses that overpaid tariffs under a policy the Supreme Court struck down may be able to claim a refund — the window is opening around April 20, 2026
• The CUSMA trade agreement review begins July 1, 2026 and could change how goods are classified and taxed across North American borders

Canaan’s advice: Review your HS classifications and country-of-origin documentation carefully. Businesses that invested in proper documentation and a trusted customs brokerage partner are far better positioned to navigate refund claims and duty mitigation strategies. Our team can help you assess your exposure and build a tariff contingency plan before the next escalation. Reach out to the Canaan team to get started.