Red Sea Shipping Shortcut Unlikely Before Q3 as Houthi Attacks Persist

The Bab el‑Mandab corridor—through which roughly $1 trillion in goods flow annually—has become a frontline in ongoing violent conflict. On July 7, the Liberian‑flagged Magic Seas was ambushed by Houthi drones, missiles and explosive boats, forcing its crew into lifeboats before the vessel sank. Barely 24 hours later, the bulk carrier Eternity C, carrying 22 Filipino seafarers and one Greek security officer, was struck in a similarly coordinated assault; rescuers ultimately recovered ten survivors (eight Filipinos among them), while four crew are now presumed dead and eleven remain missing as search efforts were called off amid ongoing rebel threats 

Once seen as a potential Q3 shortcut, the Red Sea now looks closed to container shipping for months to come. Daily vessel traffic through Bab el‑Mandab has plunged from nearly 80 ships a day in late 2023 to just 32–35 in early July, while insurance premiums have more than doubled. With EU naval escorts averaging fewer than one warship per day, and BIMCO warning that current attacks won’t shift established shipping patterns, a return to Red Sea transits before the third quarter appears increasingly unlikely.